Search results for "spatio-temporal modelling"
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Spatio-temporal small area surveillance of the COVID-19 pandemic
2022
Abstract The emergence of COVID-19 requires new effective tools for epidemiological surveillance. Spatio-temporal disease mapping models, which allow dealing with small units of analysis, are a priority in this context. These models provide geographically detailed and temporally updated overviews of the current state of the pandemic, making public health interventions more effective. These models also allow estimating epidemiological indicators highly demanded for COVID-19 surveillance, such as the instantaneous reproduction number R t , even for small areas. In this paper, we propose a new spatio-temporal spline model particularly suited for COVID-19 surveillance, which allows estimating a…
Environmental risk factors of airborne viral transmission: Humidity, Influenza and SARS-CoV-2 in the Netherlands
2020
AbstractObjectiveThe relationship between specific humidity and influenza/SARS-CoV-2 in the Netherlands is evaluated over time and at regional level.DesignParametric and non-parametric correlation coefficients are calculated to quantify the relationship between humidity and influenza, using five years of weekly data. Bayesian spatio-temporal models—with a Poisson and a Gaussian likelihood—are estimated to find the relationship between regional humidity and the daily cases of SARS-CoV-2 in the municipalities and provinces of the Netherlands.ResultsAn inverse (negative) relationship is observed between specific humidity and the incidence of influenza between 2015 and 2019. The space-time anal…